Wednesday, August 15, 2007
More on Ames
This statistical analysis of polls and the straw poll comes much to the same conclusion I did.
Monday, August 13, 2007
Sunday, August 12, 2007
Winners and Losers: Ames Editions
THE WINNERS:
Mike Huckabee: Showed that he is very good at appealing to voters. He has yet to show he is able to solicit the only thing more important than their votes: their campaign contributions.
Tom Tancredo: Tom looked like he might be out of a campaign after some weak showing in the past. His 4th place surge has given him at least a few more months of campaign.
Ron Paul: He showed that he can convince approximately 10% of the party faithful, in Iowa no less, to vote for him. It's truly amazing when one considers how little he spent in and visited Iowa.
Romney: All the attention is on him and definitely off of his nearest rivals, which is what he wants, but...
THE LOSERS:
Romney: Also lost because he didn't win by very much, attendance was low and he poured so much into it that his results were a bit underwhelming.
McCain, Rudy: I'm lumping them together for being front runners that let a major media event and momentum shifter pass them by. The poll also showed that support for them is lukewarm, not die hard.
Tommy Thompson: He spent so much time and money in Iowa, to finish 6th behind Ron Paul is disastrous. If he sticks to his word he'll be dropping out of the race soon.
Brownback: Despite getting third, he poured more money, buses, time and what ever else there is into the even than the similar Huckabee, but still finished behind him. Not good.
John Cox: Who? Yeah, I feel bad for the guy. He seems like a true conservative, he's not a career politician, he's a businessman.
Fred Thompson: Fred is supposed to be the grass roots candidate, the true conservative who hasn't entered yet. His poor showing shows that people really only care about him because they're frustrated with the current field, and that when campaign comes to shove, they'll back Romney.
Duncan Hunter: Biggest loser of the night. He fell into John Cox territory for vote totals, but he's long been considered a serious candidate and unlike Rudy, Fred and McCain, he actually tried to make a showing at the straw poll.
Mike Huckabee: Showed that he is very good at appealing to voters. He has yet to show he is able to solicit the only thing more important than their votes: their campaign contributions.
Tom Tancredo: Tom looked like he might be out of a campaign after some weak showing in the past. His 4th place surge has given him at least a few more months of campaign.
Ron Paul: He showed that he can convince approximately 10% of the party faithful, in Iowa no less, to vote for him. It's truly amazing when one considers how little he spent in and visited Iowa.
Romney: All the attention is on him and definitely off of his nearest rivals, which is what he wants, but...
THE LOSERS:
Romney: Also lost because he didn't win by very much, attendance was low and he poured so much into it that his results were a bit underwhelming.
McCain, Rudy: I'm lumping them together for being front runners that let a major media event and momentum shifter pass them by. The poll also showed that support for them is lukewarm, not die hard.
Tommy Thompson: He spent so much time and money in Iowa, to finish 6th behind Ron Paul is disastrous. If he sticks to his word he'll be dropping out of the race soon.
Brownback: Despite getting third, he poured more money, buses, time and what ever else there is into the even than the similar Huckabee, but still finished behind him. Not good.
John Cox: Who? Yeah, I feel bad for the guy. He seems like a true conservative, he's not a career politician, he's a businessman.
Fred Thompson: Fred is supposed to be the grass roots candidate, the true conservative who hasn't entered yet. His poor showing shows that people really only care about him because they're frustrated with the current field, and that when campaign comes to shove, they'll back Romney.
Duncan Hunter: Biggest loser of the night. He fell into John Cox territory for vote totals, but he's long been considered a serious candidate and unlike Rudy, Fred and McCain, he actually tried to make a showing at the straw poll.
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
Tuesday, July 31, 2007
Right Wing Net: The War for online voters
Here we see Google Trends' comparison between Fred Thompson and Ron Paul. It's close, but Ron Paul seems to barely edge out Fred Thompson. Of course, Thompson, the Washington insider's outsider candidate, has more attention in D.C. than Ron Paul. But who is honestly surprised by that?
Credit to Lew Rockwell Blog where I first saw this.
Credit to Lew Rockwell Blog where I first saw this.
Friday, July 27, 2007
Rudy n' Romney pass on YouTube
So apparently Rudy and Mitt Romney have decided to pass on the YouTube debate in September. Rudy claims he has a scheduling conflict (which is pure bull shit, who schedules an event during a debate that has been announced months in advance?) and Romney claims that he's above being lectured by a snowman (actually, he's above being asked questions by people that want to hear more about how he doubled nearly every fee, expanded the budget and provided health care to Massachusetts).
On top of these two saying the won't go, only two candidates, Ron Paul and John McCain, have stated that they'll be attending. What I'm wondering is what are the other six (including Fred Thompson) going to do? My guess is that they're trying to follow the leaders and wait until they see a big fish get back into the debate.
Which big fish is most likely to do that? I'm thinking Romney will change his mind (he's been known to do so) if he can get an assurance that there will be no snowmen. After Romney, I see Fred Thompson as the guy most likely to step up and take the charge. Rudy is the least likely to change his mind first. Whoever does change their mind though, the other two will follow.
Check out Save the Debateto see if an online petition can succeed in saving an online debate.
On top of these two saying the won't go, only two candidates, Ron Paul and John McCain, have stated that they'll be attending. What I'm wondering is what are the other six (including Fred Thompson) going to do? My guess is that they're trying to follow the leaders and wait until they see a big fish get back into the debate.
Which big fish is most likely to do that? I'm thinking Romney will change his mind (he's been known to do so) if he can get an assurance that there will be no snowmen. After Romney, I see Fred Thompson as the guy most likely to step up and take the charge. Rudy is the least likely to change his mind first. Whoever does change their mind though, the other two will follow.
Check out Save the Debateto see if an online petition can succeed in saving an online debate.
Saturday, July 14, 2007
Gilmore has dropped out
The Politico reports that Jim Gilmore has dropped out of the race. He has finally realized that he needs a ton of money and that he is further challenged by the primary front loading. I'll admit it; I didn't see him being the first to drop out. Still, it's unsuprising that he's gone and I expect Tancredo and Tommy Thompson to follow suit soon.
By the way, I've been gone for a while but as I predicted in my post about Fred Thompson, the "top tier" is beginning to collapse, beginning with McCain. I think Rudy will probably come next, probably as the IAFF and their hits on him increase in publicity.
By the way, I've been gone for a while but as I predicted in my post about Fred Thompson, the "top tier" is beginning to collapse, beginning with McCain. I think Rudy will probably come next, probably as the IAFF and their hits on him increase in publicity.
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